War
This has been built up as the worst thing that could happen to Remnant, specifically one that pits the kingdoms against each other, and that the Vytal Festival is the ultimate symbol of peace, so destroying the Vytal Festival would very likely ruin the peace.
I’m not sure of a why yet. I know Cinder wants to take power from others, and a war between the kingdoms would leave them vulnerable to attacks from Grimm. The Grimm from Mountain Glenn didn’t seem to bother Cinder’s group, so they, especially with the White Fang, could still work while the rest of humanity is under siege. One possibility is that all of her other plans would greatly weaken her enemies, so why not go all in and star a war.
Dust
“It’s not about overpowering the enemy. It’s about taking what power they have.”- Cinder Fall, “Extracurricular”
Creating an artificial dust shortage would align with Cinder’s statement. Dust is used in weapons and is the source of power for pretty much everything. In addition, Cinder is doing something that would get Adam to convince the White Fang to continue the alliance with her, in spite of her plan resulting in a lot of dead White Fang members. I think Cinder was also using the Dust robberies to focus attention on protecting Dust shipments and away from the mines. Taking control of the mines using White Fang members/sympathizers among the workers would severely cripple, if not destroy, the kingdoms’ source of Dust. If Cinder has a lot of dust, then she’ll have a massive power source for her main fighting style, and her ability to give her followers Dust-based weapon upgrades would only be limited by their discipline and skill with Dust.
Base of the Coliseum
Amity Coliseum is four parts. The part contributed by Vale is a massive crystal that serves as a power source and/or a source of the dust used in the tournament battles. With the theory of Cinders taking Dust to deprive the kingdoms of it, taking this massive crystal would be necessary, since with the war, what would stop one kingdom from splitting the Vale crystal to make up for its Dust shortage?
Why Pose as Huntsmen and Huntresses in Training?
“The Vytal Festival Tournament” reveals that academies were started as a part of the peace treaty. Cinder and her group are going to pretend to be the hope of the kingdoms to create the most symbolic destruction of peace.
Why Haven and Mistral?
Cinder, Mercury, and Emerald have infiltrated Haven Academy. Haven is the only other school to have students officially introduced (SSSN and now ABRN), but there isn’t much known about Mistral. They have trade routes and the Regional Mistral Tournament, which Pyrrha won four times, so it’s likely that Sanctum Academy is there too. Mistral provides the arches for the Amity Coliseum. There’s not strong reason for why they’d choose Haven, or why not.
There’s a chance that we might learn more about Mistral. The opening is promising that Team SSSN will still be somewhat prominent, so maybe they’ll learn something about Haven. Perhaps Haven was the first school established from scratch while the rest were built on pre-existing infrastructure.
Another possibility is that this is simple convenience. Neptune and Pyrrha are from Haven and based on Greek and Roman mythology, so Mercury may also be from Mistral. It’s not clear what his age is, so it’s possible that he was a student at Haven when Cinder recruited him. I don’t have anything to back up guesses about Emerald’s place of origin, but Sun proves that Haven does get transfers from other kingdoms, so she could be an actual student of Haven too. Cinder may have gotten in and joined the team with a forged transcript. It’s not the first time in the series.
Semblances
Taking semblances of talented students such as Pyrrha would make it even harder for huntsmen and huntresses to defend the kingdoms and civilians, so that dovetails with destroying the kingdoms nicely. Also, it’s not clear what the criteria for putting students on the list are. Pyrrha’s semblance is powerful, but she keeps it hidden and uses it to shift things to her advantage. Of the current characters, Cinder, Glynda, Velvet, and Weiss are the only ones who could hold their own against Pyrrha’s semblance because their fighting style relies more on dust and semblance than metal weapons, plus most have more combat experience. Revealing that some huntsmen and huntresses use semblances to shift things to their advantage without their opponents knowing.
It might not be coincidence that Pyrrha’s first opponents in that episode were ones who are completely screwed against her semblance. Cardin, Dove, and Lark are covered in metal armor that could also be manipulated, and Pyrrha could easily swat Russel away, so she could probably take him down with pure strength unless he reveals some really impressive skills with Dust.
With friendly competition a part of encouraging greatness in training huntsmen and huntresses, it might be hard to do that if some huntsmen and huntresses may have skills that other huntsmen can’t detect and can’t defend against. Some huntsmen and huntresses could be discouraged. Others may feel that people who fight like Pyrrha don’t fight fair, such as Cardin. This could sow some type of dissent. Cardin would try to get his team to ambush Pyrrha some way because she’s too powerful of an opponent for them. It may also sow discontent between kingdoms if they suspect the other who have students who hide their true strength.
I'm trying to do a regular update schedule of Wednesdays and Sundays. If I build up a bigger backlog of posts, I'll start updating more often. Although there may be an additional one this week, because I'd like to do an analysis of the lyrics of the Volume 3 opening in regards to references to past songs.
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